An Argument for Carson Wentz

Carson Wentz has a good number of detractors in the NFL media. He has been affectionately referred to as Blake Bortles Jr. by a few writers. The #NFL1000 crew that writes for Bleacher Report has particularly harsh takes on his play. They are generally good at evaluating players and I respect many of their opinions, but I disagree with them on Carson Wentz. His play this year was not spectacular, but people who watched every week understood just how much the players around him were limiting the ceiling with which he could perform. People who watched every week understood that there were growing pains, yes, but overall he played and performed like a future franchise quarterback. Evaluating quarterback play is hard. Particularly when you have outlier quarterbacks in perfect situations that muddy the waters on just what a rookie quarterback should play like (see Prescott, Dak). Therefore, I want to make a comparison between two quarterbacks who played their rookie years in similar situations only 2 years apart.

Enter Derek Carr.

This is Derek Carr's receiving corps from his rookie season:

Name	Position	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns
James Jones	WR	73	666	6
Mychal Rivera	TE	58	534	4
Andre Holmes	WR	47	693	4
Marcel Reece	FB	37	265	1
Darren McFadden	RB	36	212	0
Brice Butler	WR	21	280	2

Compare this to Carson Wentz's of this year:

Name	Position	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns
Zach Ertz	TE	78	816	4
Jordan Matthews	WR	73	804	3
Darren Sproles	RB	52	427	2
Trey Burton	TE	37	327	1
Nelson Agholor	WR	36	365	2
Dorial Green-Beckham	WR	36	392	2

Both quarterbacks dealt with similarly inept receiving corps. Their top-6 receivers each feature 3 WR's, 2 TE's, and 1 RB. The quarterbacks appeared to have targeted their receivers and found yardage in similar ways. 

Next, I want to show you a straight up comparison of every statistic Pro Football Reference keeps track of between the two quarterbacks.

Statistic	Derek Carr	Carson Wentz	Edge
Age	23	24	Derek Carr
Record	3-13	7-9	Carson Wentz
Completions	348	379	Carson Wentz
Attempts	599	607	Push
Completion %	58.1	62.4	Carson Wentz
Yards	3270	3782	Carson Wentz
Touchdowns	21	16	Derek Carr
Touchdown %	3.5	2.6	Derek Carr
Interceptions	12	14	Derek Carr
Interception %	2	2.3	Derek Carr
Yards per Attempt	5.5	6.2	Carson Wentz
Adjusted Yards per Attempt	5.3	5.7	Carson Wentz
Yards per Completion	9.4	10	Carson Wentz
Yards per Game	204.4	236.4	Carson Wentz
Rating	76.6	79.3	Carson Wentz
ESPN QBR	38.16	54.1	Carson Wentz
Sacks	24	33	Derek Carr
Sack Yards Lost	149	213	Derek Carr
Net Yards per Attempt	5.01	5.58	Carson Wentz
Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt	4.82	5.09	Carson Wentz
Sack %	3.9	5.2	Derek Carr
4th Quarter Comebacks	1	1	Push
Game Winning Drives	1	1	Push

As that chart illustrates, the quarterbacks are remarkably similar in a handful of the criteria, such as ANY/A, 4th quarter comebacks, and game winning drives. On top of that, Carson has the edge in many crucial indicators of quarterback success, including completion %, Y/A, AY/A, traditional rating method, NY/A, and ANY/A.

Lastly, I want to illustrate a few statistics that I thought were illuminating from the two quarterbacks on a week by week basis.

The following chart shows completion % throughout each's rookie season. Notable is that Carson had more instances of a higher percentage and an overall higher average, he had more fluctuation from week to week.

The following chart shows passing yards throughout each's rookie season. A threshold line at 300 yards was added. Derek Carr surpassed 300 yards passing once in his rookie year, and experienced a 5 week lull where he didn't exceed 200 yards passing. Carson experienced similar lows, but threw for more yards 10 of the 16 games. Moreover, he exceeded the 300-yard threshold 4 times compared to Carr's once.

The following chart shows passing TD's throughout each's rookie season. Both quarterbacks experienced similar number of weeks with zero touchdowns, Wentz being 5 times and Carr being 4 times. Carr had a much higher peak with one game at 4 touchdowns and another at 3 touchdowns. Apart from those games, the quarterbacks have similar touchdown numbers. Overall, Carr threw for more touchdowns his rookie season and this is evident here.

The following chart shows yards per attempt throughout each's rookie season. Wentz has an overall higher average yards per attempt as shown in the table above, and we can see here that Carson bested Carr in that category 10 out of the 16 weeks. Notably, Carson vastly outperformed Carr 4 of the weeks (weeks 1, 3, 8, and 11), whereas Carr only did that once (week 13).

This last chart shows adjusted yards per attempt throughout each's rookie season.  Once again, Wentz has the higher average from the above comparison table, but we can see that week-to-week there is nuance to understand. Wentz outperformed Carr sharply in weeks 1, 3, 9, and 16, and the reverse occurred in weeks 6 and 13.

To summarize my point, Carson Wentz and Derek Carr had remarkably similar years in offenses that were filled with similar talent. This is not to say that Carson Wentz will be as good as Derek Carr has become over the past two years. This is simply to point out that Carson Wentz's performance in categories like ANY/A, TD total, and interception % do not doom him for the future. There exists a precedent of growth and development that could occur to Wentz just like it did for Carr.

Carr and Wentz both possess similar locker room traits and work ethics, based upon what I've gathered from team, local, and national media sources. They play similar style games, both listing Brett Favre as their favorite QB of their childhoods. And as shown above, they performed remarkably similar in their rookie years.

If next year at this time Wentz has performed very similar to his rookie year, then I will start to draw Sam Bradford comparisons. For now though, the Derek Carr comparison makes a lot of sense, and makes me much more excited for the future.

2017 Draft Profile // Dede Westbrook, WR, Oklahoma

Dede Westbrook, WR, Oklahoma, RS Senior

Measurables
6'0", 175 lbs

Combine / Pro Day Results
N/A

College Production
2016: 74 receptions, 1465 yards, 19.8 avg, 16 TD [Biletnikoff Award Winner]
2015: 46 receptions, 743 yards, 16.2 avg, 4 TD

Scouting Report

Agility: 10/10
Possesses incredible body control. Check out the two GIFs below and his ability to stay in bounds for the touchdown.

There aren't a lot of people in the world that can stop on the sideline like that and then skirt into the endzone while getting pulled out of bounds by the helmet. His balance in traffic is similarly impressive and allows for excellent run after catch ability. This will be touched more on later.

Blocking: 5/10
Blocking is average to slightly below average. Westbrook's game is many things, but blocking isn't necessarily in the top 10. Still, the effort is visible most of the time. That's enough for me when Westbrook does the other things that he does.

Hands: 8/10
Westbrook is a natural hands catcher, as opposed to a body catcher, which is good. He's comfortable catching lots of different types of balls. The short and intermediate routes he was asked to run oftentimes came on a rope, which wasn't an issue. The longer bombs that came his way so frequently are a ball that lots of guys like to catch with their body, but Westbrook is fine going up and reaching for them at the highest point. This is also good. In the film I watched I only saw 1 really egregious drop, shown below.

The throw wasn't perfect, but it still should've been caught. By the way, look at that route! That head fake is the thing of dreams. Overall, I am very happy with Westbrook's hands and this is coming from an Eagles fan with PTSD concerning receiver drops.

Release: 6/10
Westbrook does not explode off of the line like some receivers. He ran a lot of downfield routes for Oklahoma, and seemed to need a step or two to get up to speed. This could be an illusion that I'm falling into because he is such a long strider, but its something I noticed frequently. Moreover, in the tape I watched he didn't face press very often. This makes it hard to determine a grade for this category. His lateral agility is good enough that I think he will be sufficient at releasing from physical corners on the line, but that's just projection at this point. I am going with a conservative 6/10 rating for this category.

Route Running: 6/10
Westbrook was not asked to run a wide variety of routes at Oklahoma. In the tape I watched, the majority of the routes were slants of varying depths, curls, nines, posts, and comebacks. On some routes, he seems to really "snap" into his breaks, whereas on others they seem to be much more rounded. This is something that can be improved with coaching, but for now remains somewhat underwhelming.

Catch in Traffic: 8/10
This is where I was pleasantly surprised about his ability. Westbrook repeatedly showed toughness in traffic and an ability to snatch the ball out of the air. For a guy who is 175 lbs, this is impressive to see. His slight build would lead one to believe that he is a finesse catcher, and he definitely is, but he is equally skilled at running slants into the middle of the field and going up and around defenders. Moreover, he held onto the ball after absorbing big hits from defenders, which is a sight for sore eyes.

This GIF above is a great example of the above characteristics. For a slight guy, Westbrook catches the ball in traffic as good as anybody else.

Speed: 10/10
Until the combine we won't have a 40 time, but Westbrook is fast. Like, really fast. Here's a GIF in case you were confused.

Yards-After-Catch Ability: 9/10
Westbrook ran lots of underneath routes and slants to complement his deep game. His ability to take short throws and turn them into huge gains impressed me multiple times. It reminded me of how terrified I am everytime OBJ catches a slant or curl against us two times a year. He's a natural runner with the ball in his hands regardless of where he is on the field.

Total: 62/80 or 77.5

Bottom Line:
I love Westbrook's game. He is a purebred playmaker and created points in a variety of ways in college, which was great to see. Currently, Westbrook is being mentioned as a Round 2 or Round 3 target. I don't agree necessarily. I think some team is going to fall in love with his speed and upside (only 2 years of FBS football!) and draft him late in the 1st or early in the 2nd round. He reminds me a lot of a young DeSean Jackson, but with the advantage of being slightly taller and heavier. If he lights up the combine, which I suspect he might, I really doubt he falls below pick 45. I'm not ready yet to call him a first round talent, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if he does go there.

If Howie Roseman and Doug Pederson are devoted towards improving the weapons around Carson Wentz, Dede Westbrook would be an excellent step in the right direction.

Why Josh Huff is going to make the 53 man roster

Okay, so, Josh Huff was super disappointing last year. Nobody is going to argue with that. I want to qualify it with one point, however: absolutely nobody on the offense was impressive last year. Even mainstay guys that have looked great in Kelly's offense previously struggled. Jason Kelce looked like a shell of himself. Jordan Matthews struggled with drops and getting open against defenses that knew he was running the same crossing route over and over and over again. There are other examples. My point being, I think the jury is still out on Josh Huff.

Alright, so I probably lost about half of you already. For those of you that stuck, here's specifically why he is going to make the roster, and he's definitely going to play a chunk of snaps every week on Sundays.

Josh Huff is De'Anthony Thomas.

Okay, not literally. But seriously, their playing styles are so similar it astounds me that I haven't heard the comparison made before. I am not the first analyst to say that the De'Anthony Thomas role will be very much needed on the offense this year, but to the best of my knowledge I am the first to say it will be filled by Josh Huff. Back during the draft, Greg Cosell and Fran Duffy did a series of super great video breakdowns on our draftees. In this link, they break down Wendell Smallwood. Pay attention to what Cosell says about 30 seconds into the video.

"First thing that I thought of was De'Anthony Thomas..."

Alright, so I wholeheartedly disagree with the comparision, I do not believe that Smallwood will see a role anything like DAT's, but still, Cosell is saying he thinks the role that DAT filled will be a part of the offense this coming year.

I'll break down for you why Josh Huff is going to be given every chance to be that guy this year. 

1) Measurables

The role that DAT carved out on the Chiefs was one where he was required to be extremely quick in small areas. Chiefly, he was used on bubble screens, tunnel screens, jet sweeps, and orbit motion passes. Thriving in these areas requires fast feet and ability to work in traffic. Basically, explosivity.

For a player to be explosive, many measurables may be considered. It is the opinion of this writer that the following four are of the utmost importance: height and weight, 10-yard split, broad jump, vertical jump.

	Josh Huff	De’Anthony Thomas
Vitals	5' 11" – 206 lbs	5' 8⅝" – 174 lbs
10 yard Split	1.53 s	1.58 s
Broad Jump	116”	124”
Vertical Jump	35½"	32”

So, the numbers speak pretty well for themselves. Josh Huff is of a similar athletic profile than DAT, and actually a bit better in some aspects. His forty time, not listed, is slightly slower than DAT's. And his extra weight may slow him down some. However, his 10 yard split is a few hundredth's of a second faster than DAT's and that speaks to his short range athleticism.

2) Ability in the open field

So, the lone bright spot of Josh Huff's season last year was probably this play against Tampa Bay. The skills he puts on display here are talents that simply cannot be taught: superb ball carrier vision, stop-start ability unrivaled by many, acceleration up the field, and many more.

Now, check out this gorgeous play from Kansas City's game in London against Detroit last year. The offensive line and runningback playfake out a zone run to the right, leaving the backside defensive end unblocked. That 'backside defensive end' also happens to be Ziggy Ansah, maybe the best 4-3 end in the game currently. An old coaching adage goes, if you can't block a guy, leave him unblocked and read him. This play does something a little like that.

DAT motions from left to right and then back to the left preplay. At the snap, he is aligned directly behind Alex Smith, who is under center. The two tight end look allows him to have two lead blockers on the perimeter, and his acceleration and quick feet get him around Ansah and headed up the sideline. Beautiful stuff.

I think, in a similar situation, Josh Huff executes that just as well as DAT does.

3) Training Camp Twitter tells all

So, it can be incredibly hard to glean much of anything from the twitter accounts of our favorite beat writers during these early days of training camp when we are desperate for literally any tidbits of information about our beloved Eagles. However, if you weed through the garbage and monotonous mention of drops galore, you can sometimes get a few pieces of information that tell a little about the team that will be fielded this year.

Firstly, I will attach a video courtesy of Ed Kracz, an Eagles beat writer for Calkins Media. It's from his Twitter account, @kracze

Wentz with a dump off to Sproles #Eagles pic.twitter.com/qrVlt4rpOb

— Ed Kracz (@kracze) July 30, 2016

Okay, so, a few things to say. Firstly, he gets in wrong in the caption, that isn't Sproles, it's Huff. So, that makes it important to us. Also, considering nothing else, we see Josh Huff motioning behind the line of scrimmage pre-play, and positioning himself for a tunnel screen behind releasing offensive linemen. So, that's pretty similar to how we've seen DAT used in Kansas City.

The smoking gun lies here, though.

That is from Week 10 last season. Does the play look familiar? Yeah? That's because its the exact same one as the one from Ed Kracz's Twitter.

In conclusion, Josh Huff is going to make the team this year, barring any crazy circumstances. Moreover, if you want to know what kind of role he is going to see, it would be wise to go back and watch De'Anthony Thomas' role in the Chiefs offense for the past two years. 

This is a link to the Chiefs SBNation blog that outlined the impact DAT had on the Chiefs offense a few years ago, even when he didn't touch the ball. A good read.

Also, I'm aware that the YouTube videos redirect you to the YouTube homepage. The NFL is the NFL, and their joy comes from making their product harder to reach for consumers. My apologies for this.

Go Eagles!