An Argument for Carson Wentz

Carson Wentz has a good number of detractors in the NFL media. He has been affectionately referred to as Blake Bortles Jr. by a few writers. The #NFL1000 crew that writes for Bleacher Report has particularly harsh takes on his play. They are generally good at evaluating players and I respect many of their opinions, but I disagree with them on Carson Wentz. His play this year was not spectacular, but people who watched every week understood just how much the players around him were limiting the ceiling with which he could perform. People who watched every week understood that there were growing pains, yes, but overall he played and performed like a future franchise quarterback. Evaluating quarterback play is hard. Particularly when you have outlier quarterbacks in perfect situations that muddy the waters on just what a rookie quarterback should play like (see Prescott, Dak). Therefore, I want to make a comparison between two quarterbacks who played their rookie years in similar situations only 2 years apart.

Enter Derek Carr.

This is Derek Carr's receiving corps from his rookie season:

Name	Position	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns
James Jones	WR	73	666	6
Mychal Rivera	TE	58	534	4
Andre Holmes	WR	47	693	4
Marcel Reece	FB	37	265	1
Darren McFadden	RB	36	212	0
Brice Butler	WR	21	280	2

Compare this to Carson Wentz's of this year:

Name	Position	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns
Zach Ertz	TE	78	816	4
Jordan Matthews	WR	73	804	3
Darren Sproles	RB	52	427	2
Trey Burton	TE	37	327	1
Nelson Agholor	WR	36	365	2
Dorial Green-Beckham	WR	36	392	2

Both quarterbacks dealt with similarly inept receiving corps. Their top-6 receivers each feature 3 WR's, 2 TE's, and 1 RB. The quarterbacks appeared to have targeted their receivers and found yardage in similar ways. 

Next, I want to show you a straight up comparison of every statistic Pro Football Reference keeps track of between the two quarterbacks.

Statistic	Derek Carr	Carson Wentz	Edge
Age	23	24	Derek Carr
Record	3-13	7-9	Carson Wentz
Completions	348	379	Carson Wentz
Attempts	599	607	Push
Completion %	58.1	62.4	Carson Wentz
Yards	3270	3782	Carson Wentz
Touchdowns	21	16	Derek Carr
Touchdown %	3.5	2.6	Derek Carr
Interceptions	12	14	Derek Carr
Interception %	2	2.3	Derek Carr
Yards per Attempt	5.5	6.2	Carson Wentz
Adjusted Yards per Attempt	5.3	5.7	Carson Wentz
Yards per Completion	9.4	10	Carson Wentz
Yards per Game	204.4	236.4	Carson Wentz
Rating	76.6	79.3	Carson Wentz
ESPN QBR	38.16	54.1	Carson Wentz
Sacks	24	33	Derek Carr
Sack Yards Lost	149	213	Derek Carr
Net Yards per Attempt	5.01	5.58	Carson Wentz
Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt	4.82	5.09	Carson Wentz
Sack %	3.9	5.2	Derek Carr
4th Quarter Comebacks	1	1	Push
Game Winning Drives	1	1	Push

As that chart illustrates, the quarterbacks are remarkably similar in a handful of the criteria, such as ANY/A, 4th quarter comebacks, and game winning drives. On top of that, Carson has the edge in many crucial indicators of quarterback success, including completion %, Y/A, AY/A, traditional rating method, NY/A, and ANY/A.

Lastly, I want to illustrate a few statistics that I thought were illuminating from the two quarterbacks on a week by week basis.

The following chart shows completion % throughout each's rookie season. Notable is that Carson had more instances of a higher percentage and an overall higher average, he had more fluctuation from week to week.

The following chart shows passing yards throughout each's rookie season. A threshold line at 300 yards was added. Derek Carr surpassed 300 yards passing once in his rookie year, and experienced a 5 week lull where he didn't exceed 200 yards passing. Carson experienced similar lows, but threw for more yards 10 of the 16 games. Moreover, he exceeded the 300-yard threshold 4 times compared to Carr's once.

The following chart shows passing TD's throughout each's rookie season. Both quarterbacks experienced similar number of weeks with zero touchdowns, Wentz being 5 times and Carr being 4 times. Carr had a much higher peak with one game at 4 touchdowns and another at 3 touchdowns. Apart from those games, the quarterbacks have similar touchdown numbers. Overall, Carr threw for more touchdowns his rookie season and this is evident here.

The following chart shows yards per attempt throughout each's rookie season. Wentz has an overall higher average yards per attempt as shown in the table above, and we can see here that Carson bested Carr in that category 10 out of the 16 weeks. Notably, Carson vastly outperformed Carr 4 of the weeks (weeks 1, 3, 8, and 11), whereas Carr only did that once (week 13).

This last chart shows adjusted yards per attempt throughout each's rookie season.  Once again, Wentz has the higher average from the above comparison table, but we can see that week-to-week there is nuance to understand. Wentz outperformed Carr sharply in weeks 1, 3, 9, and 16, and the reverse occurred in weeks 6 and 13.

To summarize my point, Carson Wentz and Derek Carr had remarkably similar years in offenses that were filled with similar talent. This is not to say that Carson Wentz will be as good as Derek Carr has become over the past two years. This is simply to point out that Carson Wentz's performance in categories like ANY/A, TD total, and interception % do not doom him for the future. There exists a precedent of growth and development that could occur to Wentz just like it did for Carr.

Carr and Wentz both possess similar locker room traits and work ethics, based upon what I've gathered from team, local, and national media sources. They play similar style games, both listing Brett Favre as their favorite QB of their childhoods. And as shown above, they performed remarkably similar in their rookie years.

If next year at this time Wentz has performed very similar to his rookie year, then I will start to draw Sam Bradford comparisons. For now though, the Derek Carr comparison makes a lot of sense, and makes me much more excited for the future.